Topic: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Now that the nominees have been announced, what are your predictions for the major televised categories?

I guess first place gets bragging rights. Second place, a signed 8x10 glossy of my Yorkshire terrier, Sophie.

The nominees may be perused here.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Original Screenplay  =  AMERICAN HUSTLE
Adapted Screenplay  =  Terrence Winter, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Visual Effects  =  GRAVITY
Sound Mixing  =  INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Sound Editing  =  ALL IS LOST
Production Design  =  AMERICAN HUSTLE
Original Song  =  "Let it Go," FROZEN
Score  =  Johnny Williams, THE BOOK THIEF
Makeup & Hair  =  THE LONE RANGER
Foreign Language Film  =  THE GREAT BEAUTY
Editing  =  AMERICAN HUSTLE
Documentary Feature  =  THE ACT OF KILLING
Director  =  Alfonso Cuaron
Costume Design  =  AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cinematography  =  Emmanuel Lubezki, GRAVITY
Animated Feature  =  FROZEN
Supporting Actress  =  Lupita Nyong'o
Actress  =  Amy Adams
Supporting Actor  =  Jared Leto
Actor  =  Bruce Dern
Picture  =  GRAVITY

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Right now, I'm 85% confident that these will be the winners, barring the inevitable shocking upset. These aren't what I would vote for, necessarily.

Picture - 12 Years a Slave

Director - Alfonso Cuaron

Actor - Chiwetel Ejiofor

Actress - Cate Blanchett

Supp. Actor - Jared Leto

Supp. Actress - Lupita Nyong'o

Animated - Frozen

Cinematography - Gravity

Editing - Gravity

Foreign - The Hunt

Score - Gravity

Song - Let It Go, Frozen

Makeup/Hairstyling - Dallas Buyers Club

Production Design - American Hustle

VFX - Gravity

Adapted Screenplay - 12 Years a Slave

Original Screenplay - American Hustle

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

I think DocSub might be right. I really wish Gravity would sweep, but I suspect that won't happen. It'll be a repeat of Life of Pi last year, where it picks up all the technicals, cinematography, and best director, while 12 years a slave gets best picture.

Don't underestimate American Hustle though, apparently the academy really likes it.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

bullet3 wrote:

I think DocSub might be right. I really wish Gravity would sweep, but I suspect that won't happen. It'll be a repeat of Life of Pi last year, where it picks up all the technicals, cinematography, and best director, while 12 years a slave gets best picture.

Don't underestimate American Hustle though, apparently the academy really likes it.

I'd swap out The Hunt for The Great Beauty.

not long to go now...

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

I'm with Doc.

Teague Chrystie

I have a tendency to fix your typos.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

avatar wrote:
bullet3 wrote:

I think DocSub might be right. I really wish Gravity would sweep, but I suspect that won't happen. It'll be a repeat of Life of Pi last year, where it picks up all the technicals, cinematography, and best director, while 12 years a slave gets best picture.

Don't underestimate American Hustle though, apparently the academy really likes it.

I'd swap out The Hunt for The Great Beauty.

That's a shaky category, yeah. The Golden Globes win gives Great Beauty a boost, but I wonder if it'll be a bit too arty for Academy voters. Whereas The Hunt is a more visceral, relatable story.

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Nope, forget everything I said. The Onion has this shit nailed down.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/the-on … cks,34975/

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Doctor Submarine wrote:

Nope, forget everything I said. The Onion has this shit nailed down.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/the-on … cks,34975/

And Hollywood Swine...

http://hollywoodandswine.com/academy-aw … car-snubs/

not long to go now...

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave

Actor: Matthew McConaughey

Actress: Cate Blanchett

Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence

Animated: Frozen

Cinematography: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki

Costume Design: The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin

Directing: Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón

Documentary: The Act of Killing

Film Editing: 12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

Foreign Language Film: The Hunt

Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Original Score: Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett

Original Song: "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Production Design: 12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker

Sound Editing: Gravity, Glenn Freemantle

Sound Mixing: Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

Visual Effects: Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave, Screenplay by John Ridley

Original Screenplay: Her, Written by Spike Jonze

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Any tips for the Razzies?

Writing: Lindelof for Star Trek
Acting: Entire cast of Pacific Rim
Biggest Bomb: Fifth Estate

not long to go now...

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

VFX: Something funny I don't know you write the punchline god

Teague Chrystie

I have a tendency to fix your typos.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Razzies can go fuck themselves........but I'll guess those instead big_smile -

Worst Picture: After Earth
Worst Actor: Jaden Smith
Worst Actress: Lindsay Lohan
Supporting Actor: Chris Brown
Supporting Actress: Kim Kardashian
Screen Combo: Cast of Movie 43
Prequel/Sequel/remake etc: The Lone Ranger
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Screenplay: Grown Ups 2 (an Adam Sandler film has to win something

Nominations here- click

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Re: Las Vegas odds --

12 YEARS is currently a prohibitive favorite in the BP race at around 1/5. AM HUSTLE is at 7/2. GRAVITY is at 12/1. HER is at 125/1.

Best Actor looks funny to me. Ejiofor is more or less even-money, but they're betting 11/8 against Mr. McConaughey, which seems like a little too much weight to be giving up when the guy just won the Golden Globe and is sort of having his moment right now. They've fixed Bale at at 66/1, Bruce Dern at 25/1, and Di Caprio at 10/1. All of which seems pretty steep for what's clearly shaping up to be one of the more competitive categories.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

McConaughey's role carries the same "THIS IS IMPORTANT" thing that Ejiofor's does. Both of them do really really good work, so I wouldn't be surprised if either of them take it.

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Also, Alfonso Cuaron is a favorite for best director at 2/7, whereas Steve McQueen is 5/2.

I think it's more like an even-money coin toss between those two.

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Yeah, it's pretty much a two-horse race for Best Actor between McConaughey and Ejiofor (and there's a sentence that needs more spellcheck than most).   

Dern's there for being in something decent and not being dead yet, Bale and diCaprio are there because if it wasn't them it'd be Hanks or one of the other stalwarts.  So it comes down to the Battle of The Important Topic movies between Slave and Dallas.

Haven't seen Slave yet but I'm sure Ejiofor is great, I have seen Dallas and I know Mac is great.   Personally I give the edge to Matthew for doing the weight-loss thing and playing something outside his normal range: two things that so often work.  Plus the overall "Mac is back!" wave he's riding.   In Academy thinking Ejiofor is comparatively the "new guy", honor just to be nominated etc.   If he's that good, he'll be back, is the conventional wisdom.

So my money's on Mac, but it won't shock me if Ejiofor wins.  It will shock me if it goes to one of the other three.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Sorry for this, but I just love oddsmaking:

If, right now, you lock in a bet on Amy Adams to win Best Actress, you can get as much as 12-to-1. Blanchett is the clear betting favorite. Sandy is a 6-to-1 dog.

The odds on Meryl Streep winning Best Actress currently range from 25/1 to 40/1. If you asked any of us one year ago, "Next year, Streep will be nominated. What do you think the odds on her winning will be?" few people would have said "40/1."

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Aaaand McConaughey wins Best Actor at the SAG Awards... the train keeps on a'rollin...

Deadline says if anyone's going to steal the Oscar from Mac, it's diCaprio.  I guess it's possible but I'm not betting that way.

Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Starting to think that McConaughey's "Homophobia Is Bad" points might outweigh Ejiofor's "Racism Is Bad" points. Both performances are equally great otherwise.

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Rob wrote:

The odds on Meryl Streep winning Best Actress currently range from 25/1 to 40/1. If you asked any of us one year ago, "Next year, Streep will be nominated. What do you think the odds on her winning will be?" few people would have said "40/1."

Career Oscar Nominations: 15
Career Oscar Wins: 3

I dunno how odds making works but the odds aren't good.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

The long shot bet would have been "next year, Meryl Streep won't be nominated".

Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Another thing to remember about SAG is who makes up the membership body. My friend's boyfriend is in SAG because he acted in commercials and "random episodes of bad tv shows" (her words) as a child. Still gets a bunch of screeners and a ballot each year. College-aged kid, keep in mind. Hasn't acted in many years. He rarely even watches all the eligible films.

His little brother is also in SAG, also gets all the screeners. You might know him from such roles as "Kid In The First 15 Seconds" from this The Lonely Island music video.

Last edited by Doctor Submarine (2014-01-19 06:30:48)

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

It's the fact that Streep is getting booked as the longest of longshots that sort of struck me. It's probably happened several times to her in 15 noms, but it's funny to think about how we might've speculated. If you'd have asked me a year ago where I thought her odds would be in the Best Actress race, I certainly would not have said "dead last." It's just kinda delicious that the mighty Meryl is such a huge underdog, is all.

Hey you think I'm obnoxious with this shit, you should hear me trying to parse college football (I'll spare you).

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Remember the last time she won? It was a pretty big upset then too. In fact I think in her acceptance speech she said something like, "Well, I know this is never going to happen again." She's the John Williams of acting. They'll nominate her no matter what she does, because everyone knows she's so damn good, but because of that they'd rather recognize other performers most of the time.

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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