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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Aw geez, now you guys have got me feeling bad for Meryl. Poor gal never wins anything! smile

So, she's actually had 18 Academy Award noms (wow). She's won three times (KRAMER VS. KRAMER, SOPHIE'S CHOICE, THE IRON LADY). Prior to her last win, for THE IRON LADY, she appears to have been the even-money favorite going into Oscar night.

Of course, the oddsmaking wizards don't only consider her past batting average when deciding her odds. Like anyone who's about to make a wager, they consider any and all information that (they feel) might have some bearing on the eventual outcome. So her career win/loss ratio would be one of several factors they weigh. It's sort of like whenever the Bears play the Packers -- they consider the fact that the Bears have historically only won so many home games against the packers (or whatever), but they also consider who's on the teams this year, how they're playing, who's got momentum, whether the Bears quarterback is currently battling a case of VD, and so on. Obviously a big difference with the Oscars is that, after a certain point, two nerds at Pricewaterhouse Coopers accounting firm actually know what the outcomes will be.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Well, this race just got a lot more interesting.

In an unprecedented tie, the PGA gave its highest honor to both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. Since the winner of that award has gone on to win Best Picture the past 6 years in a row (and most of the time before that), this complicated things. Ah, this is fun!

"The Doctor is Submarining through our brains." --Teague

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Rob wrote:

Re: Las Vegas odds --

12 YEARS is currently a prohibitive favorite in the BP race at around 1/5. AM HUSTLE is at 7/2. GRAVITY is at 12/1. HER is at 125/1.

Best Actor looks funny to me. Ejiofor is more or less even-money, but they're betting 11/8 against Mr. McConaughey, which seems like a little too much weight to be giving up when the guy just won the Golden Globe and is sort of having his moment right now. They've fixed Bale at at 66/1, Bruce Dern at 25/1, and Di Caprio at 10/1. All of which seems pretty steep for what's clearly shaping up to be one of the more competitive categories.

Odds update for anyone who cares:

The Best Picture race has held steady at the top -- 12YAS is 1/4 and GRAVITY is at 9/2. HER is a 300-to-1 underdog. sad

Best Actor -- Ejiofor dropped like a rock in the weeks after the nominations. He went from being the even-money betting favorite to third place, getting booked at 12/1. Leo's in second place at 5/1. McConaughey is now 2/9.

Roger Deakins is a 74/1 longshot, but there's been murmurings that he's garnered more votes than some might expect. Lubezki's still the 1/33 favorite.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Now that I've seen 12YAS, I hope it wins BP. As much as I loved GRAVITY, it already has a place secured in cinema history. Best Picture also-rans are usually forgotten to the ages and 12YAS deserves (needs, IMO) to be remembered.

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Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool

Even if GRAVITY or (God forbid) AMERICAN HUSTLE pulls an upset and wins Best Picture, Mr. Ridley seems like a pretty big lock to win for Best Adapted Screenplay (He's 1/6 right now. His closest competition is being given 9-to-1.) Also the awesome Lupita Nyong'o is now the favorite to win Best Supp Actress (she was not before).

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I'm still pulling for Her to win BP or at least Best Screenplay, even though it doesn't have a shot in hell at the former.

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HER is a slight favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at 5/6. AMERICAN HUSTLE is 6/4.

I think Jonze wrote the best screenplay not only of the year but of the damn decade. He won the Golden Globe, but the Hollywood Foreign Press is not the same group of people as the Academy. They might just crown David O. Russell rather than give HER its due. (The median age of an Academy voter is 62. Only 14% of voters are people under the age of 50. Thus it won't be surprising if a film that makes the analog 70s look glamorous goes over better than a film about a digitized future.)

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