Re: Oscars 2014 Office Pool
Aw geez, now you guys have got me feeling bad for Meryl. Poor gal never wins anything!
So, she's actually had 18 Academy Award noms (wow). She's won three times (KRAMER VS. KRAMER, SOPHIE'S CHOICE, THE IRON LADY). Prior to her last win, for THE IRON LADY, she appears to have been the even-money favorite going into Oscar night.
Of course, the oddsmaking wizards don't only consider her past batting average when deciding her odds. Like anyone who's about to make a wager, they consider any and all information that (they feel) might have some bearing on the eventual outcome. So her career win/loss ratio would be one of several factors they weigh. It's sort of like whenever the Bears play the Packers -- they consider the fact that the Bears have historically only won so many home games against the packers (or whatever), but they also consider who's on the teams this year, how they're playing, who's got momentum, whether the Bears quarterback is currently battling a case of VD, and so on. Obviously a big difference with the Oscars is that, after a certain point, two nerds at Pricewaterhouse Coopers accounting firm actually know what the outcomes will be.