I still think it's either 12 Years, Gravity, or American Hustle. They all have strong points for and against. 12 Years seems like the obvious pick because of its serious "important"-seeming take on a historical tragedy, but like Zarban said, Rich Old White Men. Gravity's effects are revolutionary, but they might be so good that those older voters won't even think about the craft involved in making the film, and the story isn't great or anything. American Hustle, meanwhile, is kinda fun and it doesn't make you think, and people really seem to like it. Also, the Academy seems to like the 70s right now, as evidenced by Argo's win. They're all strong contenders.