If DEA internal-affairs were investigating Walt's confessional video, they might have some circumstantial evidence to support it:
(1) Hank's recovery was paid for by Walt
(2) Hank's neglecting his DEA duties and has already been reprimanded for this
(3) Hank declined a promotion to remain in New Mexico
(4) Hank was targeted by a rival cartel
(5) Witnesses can testify that Walt was in Hank's office, and Hank closed the blinds twice
(6) Walt and Hank were driving around together to the Chicken Place while Hank was in the final stages of recovery

None of these are strong, but enough for the show's writers to make something of them if they chose to go down that route.

Even without all the circumstantial evidence and red herrings, Hank's gonna have to deal with the question "How could your own brother-in-law be a drug kingpin and you never knew it?" That alone is a career-killer.  Even if he's officially cleared of actual wrongdoing - and that's going to be a laborious, embarrassing process - he still ends up looking incompetent at best.

So now that he does know and still isn't telling anyone, the longer this goes on, the worse this gets.   He absolutely has to nail Walt now, and he's going to become more and more desperate until he does.

Yeah, Paul and I were talking about how he has gotten so much better as an actor just over this show.

Not that he was bad at first or anything, but some of the shit he's had to pull off in the last season I don't think he'd have managed to nail in the first season.

I don't think his character was let down by the writers. In the past few seasons, he's mostly been a way to show us what Walt has become (I think the times I hate him the most is when he so obnoxiously lies to Jesse). But I really believe they have something great in store for him (as hinted last episode) and he'll have a good payoff.

Fair enough - doesn't have to be 'normal conventional society goals', but give him some direction. Anything. Just seeing him catatonic or talking bollocks with his deadshit friends (he's clearly brighter) or throwing his money away... I dunno... seems like a lost soul. Here's some more examples... the quest to become accepted by his parents (that subplot went nowhere), make enough dough to impress some chick (Great Gatsby plot), run his own competing meth lab that's even better than Walt's by first enrolling in a chemistry degree (Good Will Hunting plot), fresh start to get out of shitsville...

I'm not saying he has to succeed in any of these goals. There's more drama if he fails. But at least have some rudder. In any case, such a passive (& often idiotic) character would have become unsympathetic long ago in less capable hands, but Aaron Paul is knocking it out of the park.

Jesse IS a lost soul, pretty much has been since Jane's death.  I see that as the main reason he keeps trying to get rid of the money and get himself into trouble - he's punishing himself.   More and more, it's been Walt who thwarts Jesse's attempts to destroy himself because that would likely also expose Walt.

One key piece of info Jesse still doesn't have - Walt watched Jane die when he might have saved her.  I dunno if Jesse will ever find that out... but it's for damn sure if he does, that's gonna trigger the Apocalypse.

There was a scene a few episodes back where that night came up - I think it was when Walt was talking about the irony of meeting Jane's dad in the bar - and I thought Walt might slip and say the wrong thing and Jesse would figure it out.   It's still a possibility, I think.

The other option, like you say, is that Walt just tells Jesse about it for some reason - maybe in a moment of anger or to rattle him, who knows.

I'm not completely sure they'll do anything with it, but it's a pretty big bomb to leave unexploded. 

How great would it have been to have Jesse Pinkman onboard the Prometheus? Hey yo, what's say we don't try to pet the serpentine creature that's clearly making a threat display, and instead we turn around and leave this bitch?

When considering Jesse's aimlessness, erratic behavior, and ability to hang out with moronic dipshits who he's clearly smarter than*, it's worth remembering that he's an addict. I've always thought the writers have been fairly savvy when it comes to this aspect of the character. A lot of the stuff Jesse's done, like a lot of the facts about how his life has gone, sometimes make a little more sense when you remind yourself that he's had full-blown addict software running on his brain for years. Add that to the relentlessly stressful and dangerous life he's lead, and you realize he was probably way overdue for a nervous breakdown in which he tries to torch someone's house. (Throwing lots of money out of your car is, I admit, not typical druggie behavior...)

* Dave Chappelle used to have a joke about how, when you do drugs, you end up hanging out with certain people, and often the only thing you have in common with them is drugs. He does this whole bit about how he'd be sitting there with a bunch of klansmen, passing a joint around, politely asking them if they could please stop all the name-calling.

As a quick follow-up...since the start of the 2nd-half of the final season I've been saying that the "flash forwards" would be caught up to with 2 episodes left. His return would be the 2nd to last episode, setting the stage for the climax and epilogue in the final episode of the series.

After this episode, it seems even more likely to me.

Next week's episode is titled "Ozymandius"...which if you do a quick Wiki-search on the famous poem, the first sentence in the Analysis section is this: "The central theme of Ozymandias is the inevitable decline of all leaders, and of the empires they build, however mighty in their own time."

I'm guessing that whatever the outcome of the shootout is, this next episode will be Walter's true fall from grace. Considering he was sitting in handcuffs and humiliated by Hank in this one...I can only imagine how far he's going to fall next week.

"You're the math whiz. Add two-plus-two."

Is there any way in hell Hank and Gomez walk away from that showdown? They're literally out-gunned. From a trying-to-read-the-writers'-moves standpoint, it would make Hank's final phone call with Marie all the more tragic. That celebratory phone call also allows Marie to know that Walt was present—albeit in handcuffs—when Hank died and/or "went missing." But who says that's going to happen. The reservation police might show up next for all we know. Hell, a spectral Mike Ehrmantrout might show up as a Jedi ghost to tell everyone that Walt's only guilty "from a particular point of view." This show loves its surprises.

Again, Walt's desperation and stress levels seem to have dampened his intelligence. Jesse's whole If you end this phone call, I'm torching your money ploy seemed like the kind of weird detail that would have raised Walt's suspicions once upon a time. But it makes sense—when emotions run high, rationality can run low.

And poor Huell. The guy's a brilliant pickpocket, and they make him fall for Hank's bullshit interrogation ruse. (My nephew asked me: "Can the authorities really lie to people like that?!" Yes.) It was pretty clever of Hank/Jesse, though. Just seeing Hank use the Hello Kitty phone made my night.

Actually, what really made my night was seeing Todd trying to put the moves on Lydia! Oh man have I been waiting for that shoe to drop. Neither character is easy to read. I think Todd's just a young horny dude and Lydia's literally the only woman in his circle of felons. (Not that I blame him. Lydia's pretty hot, if a little high strung. And, I suppose, she's a murderer, but nobody's perfect amirite?)  And Lydia? I honestly can't tell if she just looks down on Todd, is disgusted by him, doesn't like to mix business with... whatever it is she would do with Todd, or if she was actually momentarily flattered by the attention from this young ruffian and was therefore somehow disgusted with herself. But that whole moment they had—the lipstick!—has to be significant down the road, right? If Todd ever has to choose, maybe he'll surprise his racist uncle by showing allegiance to she who wears the high heels. They do make a cute couple (of murderers).

How bizarro a reality does young Todd inhabit. though?—it's a reality where the ultimate way to woo a high-class gal like Lydia is to give her some shitty tea and promise you'll do everything in your power to improve your meth-lab skills. Also, if you can throw in that your racist uncle can muscle people across the globe, that'll also help impress her.

I'm not watching the show, but reading all this I have to wonder how much better this is going to be for future viewers watching it in daily syndication. Imagine all this happening, AND YOU DON'T KNOW IT'S THE FINAL EPISODES! I had that experience with Blake's 7, where every cast change and death was a wonderful surprise. I wouldn't be shocked if the creators are putting these episodes together with that in mind, that in the future viewers streaming the show will not notice there's no next season until they get to the final episode.

My only theory about how Hank/Gomie/Jesse walk away from this gun battle is that they surrender and Walter bargains with Todd's crew -- saying he'll go back to cooking for them if they let the others live, but if they kill them then Walter will never cook for them again.

That's the only feasible way I can see the situation playing out without all of them dying.

Any other ideas?