Honestly, the only thing that might drive people away from 12 Years is how grim it is. It's basically a refutation of the whole "movies about awful historical events that make you feel good about yourself for watching them" thing that the Academy loves so much. It's a pretty cold film with some shockingly grotesque violence.

Gravity, on the other hand, has a very uplifting, hopeful ending. I still think that 12 Years will take it, and it's well deserved. But both films have elements that the Academy loves and elements that the Academy doesn't.

Gravity will take VFX, both sound awards, Editing, Cinematography, and maybe Score and Director. 12 Years will take Picture and Actor. No matter what happens, Gravity is going to come out the winner in terms of the number of trophies it takes home.

Kinda early to guess, though. Nominations aren't announced until January, and some dark horse candidates could come out of nowhere and become favorites to win.

12 YEARS winning Best Picture would be fine by me, since it's the best picture I saw this year.

Trey: I'm sure you're right. I'm awful at handicapping the BP Oscar. But in a weird way, I do think GRAVITY does say the movie business is awesome--the same way TITANIC and RETURN OF THE KING did, by being an undeniable example of cutting-edge moviemaking/"movie magic." None of the characters in GRAVITY are disabled, granted, unless we count the Clooney character's clear case of sex addiction. GRAVITY is an irregular candidate, don't get me wrong, but I think it's spectacle-y enough and mushy enough to be in the running. (NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN and THE DEPARTED seem like the only BP winners since 2000 that are fairly mush-free.) Actually the biggest reason I think GRAVITY will win is that I'm scared that 12 YEARS A SLAVE, which was my favorite film of the year, might be the Big Snub on Oscar night. Every year my favorite film of the nominees always gets snubbed. It never fails. We're going on 5 years in a row now...

Quick update: Inside Llewyn Davis is a fun little piece of work - with a good shot at a cinematography nomination and maybe a few others - but not amazing enough to change my Top Five.

Guys... what if they give it to The Butler?

Well, I had a baby in January so I missed tons this year.  It was a good year to miss, though... I think top movie for me this year was:

1. AIN'T THEM BODIES SAINTS.
2. GRAVITY

That's it.  What the hell else am I gonna put on this list?  MAN OF STEEL?

Here's all the stuff I've missed, though.  I have high hopes for a lot of these...

DON JON
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR
KILL YOUR DARLINGS
THE INEVITABLE DEFEAT OF MISTER AND PETE
12 YEARS A SLAVE
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
OUT OF THE FURNACE
PLACE BEYOND THE PINES

For me...

#1 The Crow
#2 Gravity
#3 Europa Report (provisos included)
#4 Van Helsing (just bought the DVD - wow, WOW - A definite switch your brain off movie)
#5 I don't have a fifth... well one I could place in a TOP 5 list were I could look at myself in the morning

I think it was Jackman's best performance to date.