It's the fable of the tortoise and hare.
Sure, once you're on the surface, man craps all over robot.
But given the MUCH longer development time for manned over robots, Team Robot has already a 20 year head start.
And if each team had the same amount of money, then Team Robot can deploy 20,30,50 (some say 100) robots for every manned mission.
Name any budget - big or small. You'll get more science data from robots, not man. Manned missions waste too much budget on life support systems, redundancy, PR, and having to return to Earth. And the gap between capabilities is hopefully closing, despite the glacial pace of AI research. Robots can work 24/7 in extreme radiation environments with detectors that operate outside normal senses.
Yes, manned missions have political benefits. Sure, they're inspirational. And you can't put a value on that. But if you care purely about the science, then robot beats man when factoring in project time, safety and budget.
How much for one manned mission to Mars? $500B? Probably more. After all, look how much the ISS cost. For the SAME money, you have 10 x Curiosity 2.0 rovers on Mars PLUS major Cassini-class orbiters around ALL the planets and major moons, the Terrestrial Planet Finder, balloons in Titan's atmosphere & Venus' atmosphere, floating probes on Titan's lakes, ice-core driller on Europa and Enceladus, etc.
What'll it be? You can have one Chinese man plant a flag on Mars or you can flood the solar system with probes?
Obviously in an ideal world, it'd be nice to have both manned & unmanned, but given finite budgetary constraints, I'll take robots every time as you can have more of them deployed in more difficult, exotic and interesting areas.
Anyway, that's my little rant. And I'm a big AI skeptic.
not long to go now...