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Friends In Your Head | Forums → Posts by Rob
If you listen to some of the criticisms people out there have made about WOLF OF WALL ST -- it glorifies the misdeeds of the 1-percent (it doesn't), it re-writes history in morally questionable ways (it doesn't, not really) -- those are sort of the criticisms I'd make of MR. BANKS. A powerful corporate entity plays fast & loose with the facts in service of a narrative that makes them look awesome. That's gross.
God I hate that movie.
Aw geez, now you guys have got me feeling bad for Meryl. Poor gal never wins anything! 
So, she's actually had 18 Academy Award noms (wow). She's won three times (KRAMER VS. KRAMER, SOPHIE'S CHOICE, THE IRON LADY). Prior to her last win, for THE IRON LADY, she appears to have been the even-money favorite going into Oscar night.
Of course, the oddsmaking wizards don't only consider her past batting average when deciding her odds. Like anyone who's about to make a wager, they consider any and all information that (they feel) might have some bearing on the eventual outcome. So her career win/loss ratio would be one of several factors they weigh. It's sort of like whenever the Bears play the Packers -- they consider the fact that the Bears have historically only won so many home games against the packers (or whatever), but they also consider who's on the teams this year, how they're playing, who's got momentum, whether the Bears quarterback is currently battling a case of VD, and so on. Obviously a big difference with the Oscars is that, after a certain point, two nerds at Pricewaterhouse Coopers accounting firm actually know what the outcomes will be.
It's the fact that Streep is getting booked as the longest of longshots that sort of struck me. It's probably happened several times to her in 15 noms, but it's funny to think about how we might've speculated. If you'd have asked me a year ago where I thought her odds would be in the Best Actress race, I certainly would not have said "dead last." It's just kinda delicious that the mighty Meryl is such a huge underdog, is all.
Hey you think I'm obnoxious with this shit, you should hear me trying to parse college football (I'll spare you).
Sorry for this, but I just love oddsmaking:
If, right now, you lock in a bet on Amy Adams to win Best Actress, you can get as much as 12-to-1. Blanchett is the clear betting favorite. Sandy is a 6-to-1 dog.
The odds on Meryl Streep winning Best Actress currently range from 25/1 to 40/1. If you asked any of us one year ago, "Next year, Streep will be nominated. What do you think the odds on her winning will be?" few people would have said "40/1."
Also, Alfonso Cuaron is a favorite for best director at 2/7, whereas Steve McQueen is 5/2.
I think it's more like an even-money coin toss between those two.
Re: Las Vegas odds --
12 YEARS is currently a prohibitive favorite in the BP race at around 1/5. AM HUSTLE is at 7/2. GRAVITY is at 12/1. HER is at 125/1.
Best Actor looks funny to me. Ejiofor is more or less even-money, but they're betting 11/8 against Mr. McConaughey, which seems like a little too much weight to be giving up when the guy just won the Golden Globe and is sort of having his moment right now. They've fixed Bale at at 66/1, Bruce Dern at 25/1, and Di Caprio at 10/1. All of which seems pretty steep for what's clearly shaping up to be one of the more competitive categories.
I think Scarface is Scarface for douchebags, right?.
LOL
The SuperBowl is an apt comparison for me because Awards Season is very much a spectator sport. It's not important in the cosmic sense, but for those interested in movies/Hollywood pleasure can be derived from handicapping, discussing, having an office pool. It's like football in that way--a fun diversion enjoyed precisely b/c not every conversation can be about the fate of the republic. Personally, I have a job that can get kind of heavy at times, so I need doses of pure meaninglessness & humor at regular intervals.
What's funny is that I actually liked PHILOMENA a lot. But that it got the nom and LLEWYN DAVIS didn't is... surprising.
DALLAS BUYER'S CLUB has awesome acting in it, but as a film it's kind of just slightly above average. It never occurred to me when I saw it that it might be nominated for BP. Ditto PHILOMENA.
Rob wrote:George Walker Bush graduated from Yale, class of 68, and from Harvard Business School in 1975. Daddy helped him get into both. He also traded Sammy Sosa when he owned the Texas Rangers. One doesn't need to be a presidential historian to know these things. It's covered in Oliver Stone's biopic.
Ah, true enough. But everybody knows HBS doesn't count
[Edit: And neither does the Kennedy School
Spoken like a true Yale man.
Rob wrote:PHILOMENA sticks out like George W. Bush on the Harvard campus -- you think "Yeah somebody pulled some strings to get you here."
Particularly given that Bush pere and fils went to Yale, rather than Harvard. It's an important distinction.
George Walker Bush graduated from Yale, class of 68, and from Harvard Business School in 1975. Daddy helped him get into both. He also traded Sammy Sosa when he owned the Texas Rangers. One doesn't need to be a presidential historian to know these things. It's covered in Oliver Stone's biopic. 
Original Screenplay = AMERICAN HUSTLE
Adapted Screenplay = Terrence Winter, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Visual Effects = GRAVITY
Sound Mixing = INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Sound Editing = ALL IS LOST
Production Design = AMERICAN HUSTLE
Original Song = "Let it Go," FROZEN
Score = Johnny Williams, THE BOOK THIEF
Makeup & Hair = THE LONE RANGER
Foreign Language Film = THE GREAT BEAUTY
Editing = AMERICAN HUSTLE
Documentary Feature = THE ACT OF KILLING
Director = Alfonso Cuaron
Costume Design = AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cinematography = Emmanuel Lubezki, GRAVITY
Animated Feature = FROZEN
Supporting Actress = Lupita Nyong'o
Actress = Amy Adams
Supporting Actor = Jared Leto
Actor = Bruce Dern
Picture = GRAVITY
Now that the nominees have been announced, what are your predictions for the major televised categories?
I guess first place gets bragging rights. Second place, a signed 8x10 glossy of my Yorkshire terrier, Sophie.
The nominees may be perused here.
Rob wrote:The documentary category always throws us curveballs. STORIES not getting nominated is a surprise.
Like that time Hoop Dreams, the best documentary ever made, wasn't even nominated.
And Steve James probably should have won for THE INTERRUPTERS, too.
GRAVITY is back in theaters, too. IRON MAN 3, to my knowledge, is not. Maybe GRAVITY will do some good business between now and when Ellen hits the stage.
I've seen all the films nominated for BP, and it seems to me PHILOMENA sticks out like George W. Bush on the Harvard campus -- you think "Yeah somebody pulled some strings to get you here."
I'm not that surprised BLACKFISH didn't get nominated. The documentary category always throws us curveballs. STORIES not getting nominated is a surprise.
I, too, remain puzzled at the love David O. Russell gets. AMERICAN HUSTLE is slickly written and the performances are inspired, but it doesn't have a single thing to say about anything it depicts. None of his movies do. Which is fine, except he gets talked about like he's this dark genius. What's ironic is that WOLF OF WALL STREET is a movie actually does have something constructive to say about what it depicts, and people are questioning whether it has any substance while the same people go gaga for HUSTLE.
THE GREAT BEAUTY (2013)
I got to see this again just before it won the Golden Globe for best foreign movie*. It's very pretty looking, and very Italian. Plenty of gorgeous, flowing shots of Rome (really majestic photography going on throughout). It follows an aging writer who once wrote a solid novel but now does more socializing that art. The main character and the vacuous Roman society life it depicts openly invites comparisons with Fellini. But I don't get off on LA DOLCE VITA and 8 1/2 the way a lot of people do. To me, those movies don't have the ecstasy and clarity of theme that THE GREAT BEAUTY does. It might be the difference between saying "life is absurd" and saying "life is absurd, so let's party!" Also, unlike Fellini's movies, I don't think this is anywhere near as difficult a movie as it might seem at first. With Fellini, there's this tendency to make the waters a little extra muddy so we'll assume they're a little extra deeper. But with THE GREAT BEAUTY, I would contend, it's all kind of right there. The characters are constantly stating the movie's theme outright, even to the camera at one point, and getting away with it. This is going to make a very nice-looking blu-ray.
* I think BLUE is a better movie, but I can see why people would want to give BEAUTY awards.
It's being reported that the shooter is a retired police officer(!) and former security person at Busch Gardens. The cops are saying he was indeed looking for a theater employee.
Apparently he was hauled before a judge today and charged with second-degree murder. Minimum 25 to life in FL because a firearm was used. He'll probably die in jail. (The guy's 71 years old. I'd be surprised if he were a video gamer. Man he shot was early 40s. Very sad.)
The audio around here is always hot*.
* I mean in the Paris Hilton sense. (Sounds fine to me.)
I feel like the fact that this person did this in a movie theater is interesting but, overall, incidental. If someone would have pissed this guy off at Starbucks, he'd have probably whipped out his pistol there. He's a sick puppy.
If this thread about the existence of God turns into a thread of bawdy light verse... well then this really is the best discussion forum on the web.
That's a solid limerick right there.
It's a bit of a last minute type thing, but we've one extra seat today, as faldor's gotta sit this one out, so if anyone wants the last spot, let me know. We're recording in about 2 hours from now. (10pm CET)
I'm not a gamer, per se, but I know my Star Wars & I'm available (snowed in from work). I could play the part of Johnny Know-Nothing if need be.
Eddie Izzard has another skit about how the flood wouldn't have affected any of the water borne species.
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I recently spent a weekend watching nearly all of his standup specials on Netflix. My latest fav is a bit he does toward the end of one of his shows about Darth Vader getting lunch at a cafeteria.
Sorry. Carry on.
Friends In Your Head | Forums → Posts by Rob
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