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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Nielsen ratings aren't a measure of artistic quality; they're just a measure of popularity. I'm pretty sure the networks care about quality as far as it affects popularity, but it's a loose correlation at best. And correlation does not mean causation in either direction.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

It's also a high-concept issue. More interesting shows are harder to explain and therefore to sell. I've never seen an episode of Survivor, but I know what it's about and whether I care to see it. Despite its popularity among many of my friends, I have NO IDEA what Community's about. And the more I hear references to it, the more baffled I become. I'm not saying that's a bad thing artistically, and I'll check out Community, but marketing wise it isn't doing the show any favors.

On the other hand, we did neglect in our Nielsen discussion to mention an example of a recently announced resurrected show: Arrested Development. An outlier, to be sure, but an interesting one. I wonder what data the Penguins have been seeing to make them decide this was worth doing.

EDIT: Oh, I see.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Like most things, Community's troubles aren't the result of any one thing, it's all of the above... plus the elephant in the room that hasn't been mentioned is that Community's primary timeslot competition is the Big Bang Theory over on CBS.   Regardless of what we here at DIF may think of BBT, the numbers say that a lot of people like that show.   

The show after BBT, Rules of Engagement, loses a lot of the BBT audience, meanwhile Parks and Recreation, after Community, does better.   Suggesting that many viewers switch to NBC after getting their BBT fix (although some of them may just be keeping the TV warm until The Office comes on at 9).   

It's a hypothetical, but I'd betcha that if Parks and Rec was the 8 PM show on NBC Thursday, it would be the lowest-rated one, instead of Community.  And that's nothing to do with which one is "better".   (Of the two, I happen to prefer Community myself.)

TV by the Numbers just posted a short article saying basically the same thing about Community that we've been saying here - along with a mild attempt to discourage Community fans from doing the usual useless things like online petitions and sending random objects to the NBC offices.   

And if you read the already-lenghty list of comments on that article, you will be shocked - shocked! - to see lots of clueless Community-fan butthurt on display.   Oh, internet.  *sigh*

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Disclaimer:  I am totally Eddie

Dorkman has it mostly right.  The thing to keep in mind is that there is not one docu/reality series on the air that doesn't have some kind of trade out with some company for something.  For instance when I was working on Real World 9, we had what we call a "trade out" with Snapple and Dr. pepper.  Cast got free beverages, and we just simply had to show them drinking it several times a season.

I bring this up because the main reason we blur logos is to not piss off the PAID advertisers by allowing logos on that have no trade outs.  A recent, famous example of this is on John and Kate.  When their marriage was in its death rattle, John went out and got an endorsement deal with Ed Hardy.  He swaddled himself in a cocoon of douche whereever he went, including and especially taping days for his show.  Except, surprise, he didn't clear it with TLC, so my good buddy John spent most of that summer turning John Gosselin into a blurry cloud.

Last edited by Eddie (2011-11-19 08:08:19)

Eddie Doty

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

hilarious.

In somewhat related news, Arrested Development is going to get a new season on FOX as a way to lead into the movie which is currently being hammered out, and most recently Netflix has signed a deal to start producing new episodes in 2013. I'm not sure if that includes the season that's supposed to lead up to the movie, or if the deal will be for additional shows.

Netflix had previously stated that they were going to look into producing shows and possibly movies for their service. It would be interesting to see how well they do, or if they plan on creating new series or just set up deals to produce some of these cult-popular shows from other networks.

I would think that the web would be an ideal format for series. You wouldn't have to worry about pacing for commercial breaks, you could go as short or long as you wanted, etc. I remember when I first heard about Channel 101 and I thought it was an awesome idea and would be 'the future' of internet media distribution. Turns out it was mostly teenagers shooting bad comedy shows in their backyards. It would appear that their latest shows are a bit better produced, tho it still looks like it's mostly comedy oriented. Such a waste of an idea.

Last edited by Squiggly_P (2011-11-19 22:30:52)

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Shows are expensive, and people are expensive, and you have to pay people for their time while they make the shows. Ultimately it's just a numbers thing. Can you make that all profitable somehow, or can't you? It's tricky. So tricky that nobody seems to have figured it out.

Teague Chrystie

I have a tendency to fix your typos.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

The new episodes of Arrested Development won't be on Fox, or any other network, just Netflix.   So it is an example of what you're talking about.

That might appear to mean that what we said in this Intermission episode - that there's not enough money in internet distibution to pay for network-level product - is already wrong. But in our defense, we did point out that this is an ongoing thing, and budgets for internet projects are getting bigger all the time.

And I suspect that the budgets for these new episodes won't be nearly as high as they were for the original run.  The show's producers are using the new mini-season as a run-up to a feature version, so I betcha they're taking a bit of a pay cut in hopes of getting their real payback with a hit movie later.  They're already hinting that each episode will focus on one cast member - which is a good way to keep costs down. 

And it makes sense for Netflix to use that show as an experiment, because AD already has an existing fanbase.  Not big enough to interest a network... but if Netflix can get new episodes for a reasonable price, it might be quite successful for them.  Obviously Netflix already has plenty of data on how well AD episodes do on DVD and streaming, since they're one of the companies that's been doing the renting and streaming.

So, although it'll be a while before an online venue greenlights something on the scale of a Terra Nova, or even a Firefly, we might start seeing them pick up other established lower-budget shows like... well, Community, if NBC does decide to drop that one. 

It's actually a very interesting time - even though right now you still need the brand name of a show like AD, or a big star name, like Netflix's other experiment, with an original Kevin Spacey series  - to get a web outlet to risk spending real money... it IS starting to happen.

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Trey wrote:

So, although it'll be a while before an online venue greenlights something on the scale of a Terra Nova, or even a Firefly, we might start seeing them pick up other established lower-budget shows like... well, Community, if NBC does decide to drop that one.

http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2011/ … e-2012.ars

Posted from my iPad
http://trek.fm

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Trey wrote:

...even though right now you still need the brand name of a show like AD, or a big star name, like Netflix's other experiment, with an original Kevin Spacey series  - to get a web outlet to risk spending real money... it IS starting to happen.

http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2011/ … e-2012.ars


Fixed it for you.

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Squiggly_P wrote:

I would think that the web would be an ideal format for series. You wouldn't have to worry about pacing for commercial breaks, you could go as short or long as you wanted, etc. I remember when I first heard about Channel 101 and I thought it was an awesome idea and would be 'the future' of internet media distribution. Turns out it was mostly teenagers shooting bad comedy shows in their backyards. It would appear that their latest shows are a bit better produced, tho it still looks like it's mostly comedy oriented. Such a waste of an idea.

I'm reminded of when the Japanese first discovered the idea of creating original cartoons for release on video. Creators and studios saw a huge potential for creative freedom: you could make a show as long or short as you wanted, with content that didn't have to abide by either TV or theatrical censorship restrictions. Early OAVs followed through on that, letting them experiment with single episodes that spawned a series if they did well.

However... it didn't take long for the dream to die. By the early 90's, OAVs were basically just TV episodes you had to pay for. They were all 25 minutes long, had standard opening and closing credits, and even a spot for a commercial break in the middle.

I write stories! With words!
http://www.asstr.org/~Invid_Fan/

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Crap, in an attempt to clarify and educate, I seem to have only further fueled the proverbial fire. It was meant to be, "I used to say the same thing about Nielsen ratings, but I had little to no information to base my opinions on, then The Intermission explained it to me. I want to share this knowledge." I emailed the Slashfilmcast with all this stuff last night, providing links and pulling quotes from Trey here. I got a response from Adam an hour ago:

"I'd say it's more odd that my quote was interpreted that way. Nielsen ratings are represented by .02% of TV watchers. I repeat: .02%. And that .02% is comprised of Nielsen members who have agreed to have all their TV activity monitored, which requires active participation on their part. How many people from my generation care about or respect the Nielsen ratings, and would willingly give up their time to keep tabs on what they're watching and push a button every five minutes? Another question: How many people from my generation watch Community? I wonder if Trey has considered what the crossover is there, not just for Community, but for other canceled geek favorites like Firefly and Arrested Development.

The Nielsen ratings are bullshit. The system alone introduces an inherent, unavoidable bias in that it requires people's time, and as voting proves, the people far more likely to participate in something like this are those who have plenty of it (read: old people), and those who believe they're contributing something of value to the world (read: old people).

How I feel about Community is completely irrelevant in this debate. The depressing reality is that the numbers generated by Nielsen are being relied on to prop up a billion dollar industry, despite the objective impossibility that those numbers accurately reflect the TV viewing habits of all of America."

Then a response from David Chen about 30 minutes ago:

"While I think the details are a bit more nuanced than Adam lets on, I gotta side with him on this issue. Trey's misinterpretation is pretty significant.

More details here: http://splitsider.com/2011/01/why-niels … y-that-way "

I've only just started reading the article linked above. We'll see how this goes. smile

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

So now I'm in an argument with people I've never heard of?   Awesome.  smile

EDIT:  Is the linked article supposed to be presented as a rebuttal?  It says the same things I've been saying.

Last edited by Trey (2011-11-20 20:22:38)

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

I'm afraid so, yeah... Sorry about that. Not my intention. Should you wish to express your point to them directly, their email address is slashfilmcastATgmailDOTcom. Additionally, there's also Twitter:

David Chen: @davechensky
Devindra Hardawar: @devindra
Adam Quigley: @alwayswatching

Despite this particular disagreement, they're a really fun, approachable group. I don't know, maybe you could be a guest on their show. I'm sure they would enjoy talking to you. After all, if they can have Armond White on their podcast not once, but twice, I'm sure your appearance would be just fine. smile

EDITED TO ADD: Really? I've only read the first paragraph so far. Strange. Maybe they've not listened to the episode proper and just going off what I've quoted you from these forums. Either way, the title of the article at least seems to suggest that yes, this is a rebuttal, saying the system doesn't work.

EDITED TO FURTHER ADD: I guess I spoke too soon where I shouldn't have:
"Grossly misinterpreting one of our hosts' points-of-views = not likely to cause me to invite you onto the show :-/

-David"

Last edited by johnpavlich (2011-11-20 20:50:42)

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

I've been advised to stop intermediating, as it's only causing confusion and annoyance on both sides. I apologize and thus, I wash my hands of the mess I've made.

P.S. I'm told they will listen to the Intermission episode, so that's good, right? Maybe at least some new listeners might stem from this. If not for The Intermission, maybe for Down In Front proper.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

http://images.wikia.com/bttf/images/7/73/Docgasp.jpg

Teague Chrystie

I have a tendency to fix your typos.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

what is even happening

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Apparently in an alternate universe, I was disinvited from a podcast I wasn't aware of, because I've disgruntled the hosts in an argument I didn't know I was having.  smile

Here in the real world, it's raining.

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

Well I hope you've learned your lesson alt-Trey.

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LOL! That's double-funny because it's raining HERE too!

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

johnpavlich wrote:

I'm told they will listen to the Intermission episode, so that's good, right?

Based on the available evidence, probably not.  smile

For the record I'd like to reiterate that I know nothing about slashfilm, its podcast, or principal players.  While I am tempted to get into detail over the most recent reply posted above - oh BOY am I tempted, even though I'm still not sure where it even came from - I'll hold back for now. 

I will also reiterate that I am not a Nielsen "expert",  nor am I a statistician by training.  I do work in the industry, and I have a fairly good ability to spot logical fallacies.  My interest in doing Nielsens as an Intermission topic was two-fold - first, to point out the oft-repeated claim that the Nielsens are meaningless is rarely presented with any valid evidence.  Second - to talk about the oft-repeated parallel claim that streams and DVD sales and Hulu, etc, should be used instead.

The second is easier to refute than the first, because the data is more publicly available.  As we said in the episode, and as this article also says, and as Craig Engler of Syfy says here, all those other metrics are indeed a "more accurate" measurement of viewers,  because the data is not based on polling, but on a 1:1 ratio.  If you buy a tv episode from iTunes, or watch it on Hulu, or stream it from Netflix, it counts

All well and good, but as I and those other articles also point out, sadly it doesn't count the same as a Nielsen point, when it comes to deciding if a show stays on the air.

The first argument - that Nielsens are so flawed as to be meaningless - is harder to make, either for or against, because Nielsen doesn't give out a lot of info about their methodology (for obvious reasons, see also: Coke formula).  But  I haven't been trying to defend the accuracy of Nielsen's data, so much as pointing out the flaws in the so-called arguments against it.   Which - I still maintain - are often  based on false logic, anecdotal evidence, or cherry-picking data.   

The "arguments" presented by the good folks from slashfilm, at least the ones reprinted here, contain enough examples of all three to keep us busy for quite a while.   But I spent nearly a decade arguing with UFO believers about the alien autopsy, and this has a depressingly familiar ring to it.  So I'll hold off for now, if it heats up when the episode actually goes live then maybe I'll get into it then. 

But for now, I offer this as a topic for consideration: 

Big Bang Theory airs directly opposite Community.   Big Bang has been on the air for five years, and every year its ratings have risen, to the point that it is now one of the top ten shows on television.   As a result, it has already been renewed not only for next year, but for the next three years.   

If you share the widely-held belief that Nielsen ratings discriminate against "geek favorites", then explain the success of Big Bang Theory.

Extra credit:  make a virtual field trip to a Big Bang Theory fansite of your choice, and see if they spend much time complaining about Nielsen discrimination theresmile

Last edited by Trey (2011-11-21 05:12:31)

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

trwned

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I'm not sure if people are complaining that Nielsen is discriminating against "geek favorites", but I do often hear/read that they believe Networks are doing that. The biggest offender being Fox. What they fail to realize is that the only reason Fox seems like the bigger culprit in this, is because they actually buy/air more "geek favorites" (heretofor named "genre shows") than most. They tend to pick up some of the more high-concept (or riskier), more off-the-beaten-path programming such as The X-Files, Werewolf, VR 5, Strange Luck, Millennium, Brimstone, Freaky Links, Greg The Bunny, Harsh Realm, The Adventures Of Brisco County Jr., Night Visions, Firefly, The Tick, Wonderfalls, Drive, Dollhouse, Fringe, etc. If these shows get canceled, Fox didn't do it to piss you off. They did it to patch a big hole in their boat. To stay afloat and relevant, they have to give the general public what they want, which is "general" content, meaning safe, familiar, easy and disposable.

Sure, every once in a while a smarter, more unique production will capture people's imagination. The X-Files and The Simpsons, for example. These are exceptions that prove the rule. The X-Files was full of monsters, aliens, brainy scientists and Canadians. At its core, it was a cop show. A police procedural. The Simpsons was animated, but it had swearing and more adult subject material. Not to mention, the characters were all yellow-skinned weirdos. At its core, it was a comedy-drama about a dysfunctional, lower-middle to middle class family, with kids, pets and a mortgage payment.

The other important point is at the time, Fox was a new network, just starting out. They were able to take such risks and allow shows to find an audience way easier back then. The same goes for UPN and The WB. Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Roswell and Supernatural are all genre shows that would've most likely died halfway through their first seasons on the bigger networks, provided they could even get picked up in the first place.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

johnpavlich wrote:

I'm not sure if people are complaining that Nielsen is discriminating against "geek favorites", but I do often hear/read that they believe Networks are doing that. The biggest offender being Fox.

Which makes absolutely no sense. People have convinced themselves that the networks pay money to make shows just to snatch them away once they become popular. There's no part of that which makes any sense.

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Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

I am still angry that Manimal got canceled.

BRING BACK MANIMAL!

/and 1980s melody anderson

Warning: I'm probably rewriting this post as you read it.

Zarban's House of Commentaries

Re: Intermission 010 - Making things on the TV box.

An interesting post today from Ken Levine, that's sorta kinda related to this topic.

Levine was a writer/producer for Frasier, Cheers, MASH, and many other shows, and his blog is well worth a follow for insights into the writing biz, and occasional great anecdotes.

Anyway, check out his post:  What Shows Have You Cancelled Lately?